Who is More Likely (Not) to Make Home-Based Work Trips During the COVID-19 Pandemic? The Case of Scotland

In this study, we used survey data (n = 6,000) to investigate the work trip patterns of Scottish residents at various points of the COVID-19 pandemic. We focused specifically on the reported patterns of weekly work trips made during the government-enforced lockdown and subsequent phases of restriction easing. This was of particular importance given the widespread changes in work trips prompted by COVID-19, including a significant rise in telecommuting and a reduction in public transport commuting trips. The survey data showed that the vast majority of respondents (similar to 85%) made no work trips during lockdown, dropping to similar to 77% following the easing of some work-related restrictions. Zero-inflated hierarchical ordered probit models were estimated to determine the sociodemographic and behavioral factors affecting the frequency of work trips made during three distinct periods. The model estimation results showed that the socioeconomic characteristics of respondents influenced work trips made throughout the pandemic. In particular, respondents in households whose main income earner was employed in a managerial/professional occupation were significantly more likely to make no work trips at all stages of the pandemic. Those with a health problem or disability were also significantly more likely to make no work trips throughout the pandemic. Other interesting findings concern respondents' gender, as males were more likely to complete frequent work trips than females throughout the pandemic, and differences between densely populated areas and the rest of Scotland, as respondents from a large city (Edinburgh or Glasgow) were significantly more likely to make frequent work trips as restrictions were eased.

The Anticipated Use of Public Transport in the Post-Pandemic Era: Insights from an Academic Community in Thessaloniki, Greece

This paper investigates how the travel behavior relating to Public Transport (PT) changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and which are the expectations about the extent of PT use post-pandemic. A revealed preferences questionnaire survey was distributed within an academic community in the city of Thessaloniki, Greece. To understand the factors potentially determining the future PT use, hierarchical ordered probit and bivariate ordered probit models were estimated. Results showed that the frequent PT users reduced by almost 75% during the pandemic. More than 29% of the local academic community members are reluctant to resume PT use at pre-pandemic levels. Non-captive users, teleworkers and those being unsatisfied with cleanliness and safety are less willing to travelling by PT post-pandemic. Female and under-stress passengers were found to particularly appreciate the use of facemasks and the increased service frequencies as post-pandemic policy measures. The study findings can inform the recovery strategies of transport authorities in order to retain the PT ridership at levels that will not threat the long-term viability of service provision. Future research may complement these findings by examining other population segments, such as the commuters and the elderly, under more advanced modelling techniques to account for additional unobserved behavioral patterns.

The impact of COVID-19 on future public transport use in Scotland.

This paper examines the determinants of changes in future public transport use in Scotland after the COVID-19 pandemic. An online questionnaire was distributed to 994 Scottish residents in order to identify travel habits, attitudes and preferences during the different phases of the COVID-19 outbreak and travel intentions after the pandemic. Quota constraints were enforced for age, gender and household income to ensure the sample was representative of the Scottish population. The respondents indicated that they anticipated they would make less use of buses and trains at the end of the pandemic. Over a third expect to use buses (36%) and trains (34%) less, whilst a quarter expect to drive their cars more. As part of the analysis, a random parameter bivariate probit model with heterogeneity in the means of random parameters was estimated to provide insights into the socio-demographic, behavioural and perceptual factors which might affect future public transport usage. The inclusion of random parameters allows for the potential effects of unobserved heterogeneity within the independent variables to be captured, whilst making allowances for heterogeneity in the means of the random parameters. The model estimation showed that several factors, including pre-lockdown travel choices, perceived risk of COVID-19 infection, household size and region significantly affected intended future use of public transport. In addition, several variables related to age, region, pre-lockdown travel choices and employment status resulted in random parameters. The current paper contributes to our understanding of the potential loss of demand for public transport and the consequences for future equitable and sustainable mobility. Our findings are highly relevant for transport policy when developing measures to strengthen the resilience of the public transport system during and after the pandemic.

Sociodemographic Factors Affecting Outdoor Exercise Trips During the COVID-19 Lockdown

We employ a state-of-the-art modelling framework to determine the significant factors affecting rates of outdoor exercise trips during Scotland’s COVID-19 lockdown, using data from public surveys conducted by Transport Scotland. The random parameters ordered probit modelling approach is used for its ability to account for the potential effect of unobserved heterogeneity stemming from explanatory variables. The framework is extended further to also allow for detection of heterogeneity among the means of random parameters. We show that various sociodemographic factors (relating mainly to household social grade, employment status and disability) significantly influenced the frequency at which outdoor exercise trips were made during lockdown. Specifically, those who are self-employed, those from a social DE household (the household’s main income earner is employed in a manual occupation or is unemployed) and those with a health problem or disability, were shown to be significantly more likely to complete no outdoor exercise during lockdown, and therefore, these groups are at greater risk of the associated mental and physical illnesses. Model results are linked to issues surrounding transport equity, as personal vehicle ownership was found to significantly affect the rate of outdoor exercise trips made by disabled individuals. Policy implications are discussed with regards to mitigating the effects of the pandemic on the future health state of groups exhibiting low exercise levels.

Trips for outdoor exercise at different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had exceptional effects on travel behaviour in the UK. This paper focuses specifically on the outdoor exercise trips of Scottish residents at several distinct points of the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the negative health consequences of limited exercise, this study aims to determine the sociodemographic and behavioural factors affecting frequency of outdoor exercise trips. METHODS: Using recent public survey data (n=6000), random parameters ordered probit models (with allowances for heterogeneity in the means of random parameters) are estimated for three points during the pandemic: the most stringent lockdown, modest restriction easing and further easing of restrictions. RESULTS: The survey data show frequent outdoor exercise in the early stages of the pandemic, with ∼46% making six or more weekly trips during lockdown, reducing to ∼39% during the first phase of restriction easing, and further to ∼34% during the following phase of easing. The model estimations show that common factors, dominated by socioeconomic and demographic variables, influenced the frequency of outdoor exercise trips across most survey groups. The modelling framework also allowed insights into the impact of unobserved characteristics within several independent variables; for example, the lockdown exercise trip rates of those with a health problem or disability, and those over 65, were both found to be dependent on personal vehicle access. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that those with a health problem or disability, those who live in households' where the main income earner is employed in a semi-skilled/unskilled manual occupation or is unemployed and ethnic minority groups (i.e., any mixed, Asian, or Black background) were significantly more likely to complete no weekly outdoor exercise trips throughout the pandemic. As a result, we suggest that these groups are at higher risk of the negative health consequences associated with limited physical activity. Policy implications are discussed in terms of mitigating this effect, as well as reducing transport inequity related to vehicle access.

A Novel Method for Estimating Emissions Reductions Caused by the Restriction of Mobility: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic is the single largest event in contemporary history in terms of the global restriction of mobility, with the majority of the world population experiencing various forms of “lockdown”. This phenomenon incurred increased amounts of teleworking and time spent at home, fewer trips to shops, closure of retail outlets selling non-essential goods, and the near disappearance of leisure and recreational activities. This paper presents a novel method for an economy-wide estimate of the emissions reductions caused by the restriction of movement. Using a global multiregional macro-economic model complemented by Google Community Mobility Reports (CMRs) and national transport data, we cover 129 individual countries and quantify direct and indirect global emissions reductions of greenhouse gases (GHG;1173 Mt), PM2.5 (0.23 Mt), SO2 (1.57 Mt), and NOx (3.69 Mt). A statistically significant correlation is observed between cross-country emission reductions and the stringency of mobility restriction policies. Due to the aggregated nature of the CMRs, we develop different scenarios linked to consumption, work, and lifestyle aspects. Global reductions are on the order of 1–3% (GHG), 1–2% (PM2.5), 0.5–2.8% (SO2), and 3–4% (NOx). Our results can help support crucial decision making in the post-COVID world, with quantified information about how direct and indirect consequences of mobility changes benefit the environment.